As the campaign buses prepare to temporarily park in Toronto for Tuesday's (May 18) leaders debate, an assessment of the campaign to date is warranted as this shortened campaign (a mere 28 days) has reached the midway point.

The campaign: As was predicted by pundits at the outset, this campaign has been transformed into a referendum on the leadership of Mike Harris. The Grits and NDP have done their best to paint the changes in healthcare and education as the most destructive thing to hit Ontario since Hurricane Hazel in 1954. And the rhetoric has reached a fever pitch with Mssrs. McGuinty and Hampton conjuring up images of school shootings and dying firefighters to further their partisan causes. As was predicted by pundits at the outset, this campaign has been transformed into a referendum on the leadership of Mike Harris. The Grits and NDP have done their best to paint the changes in healthcare and education as the most destructive thing to hit Ontario since Hurricane Hazel in 1954. And the rhetoric has reached a fever pitch with Mssrs. McGuinty and Hampton conjuring up images of school shootings and dying firefighters to further their partisan causes.

McGuinty and Harris should look at the results of last year's Quebec election. Both Mr. Charest and Mario Dumont tried to hammer home healthcare and education to no avail. Mr. Harris is doing the same thing that Mr. Bouchard did in Quebec, he is selling leadership and his overall economic record as opposed to the single-issue focus of his opponents. And if history is any teacher, Mr. Harris can look to June 3rd with guarded optimism.

The debate: With the momentum on his side, Mr. Harris enters the debate from a position of strength. And the Tories have scored a coup by defining Mr. McGuinty in their ads before Mr. McGuinty had a chance to define himself. So Mr. McGuinty, whom only 40% of people in his own backyard can identify, must show himself to voters to be something other than Mike Harris lite. And Mr. Hampton has an even bigger hurdle to overcome … he has to convince voters that a former senior Cabinet minister in the Rae government has learned from Bob Rae's mistakes.

The issues: The CTF is extremely pleased that the issue of Taxpayer Protection Legislation (TPL) and Balanced Budget Legislation (BBL) is back on the campaign agenda. Premier Harris has vowed that TPL and BBL is his first priority if re-elected. Obviously, he has felt our anger given the fact that he did not honour his May 30, 1995 pledge on this issue. And now Mr. McGuinty has signed his own taxpayer protection pledge and promised to enact it into law within 100 days if he is elected. While we are pleased with Mr. McGuinty's conversion to the school of tax and expenditure limits, it does strike one as a bit odd given the fact that not less than a month ago he told the Toronto Star that "when you've got legislators who are truly responsive to their constituents, you just don't need referendum legislation."

Moving to healthcare, we are still fundamentally disappointed in the approach and vacuous debate coming from all three parties. It seems to be a bidding war has to whom can buy more MRI machines, who will hire more nurses, and whose Charter of Patient Rights has more teeth. Hello guys, time for a newsflash: We must stop measuring our commitment to healthcare by how much money we spend. More spending doesn't guarantee better healthcare! How about talking about outcomes and results like reduced waiting lines, better health indicators for the population, etc.

The home stretch: After the debate, the campaign enters the home stretch and the analogy of the campaign buses best describes the journey so far en route to the June 3rd destination. After the debate, the campaign enters the home stretch and the analogy of the campaign buses best describes the journey so far en route to the June 3rd destination.

Whether you like his direction or not, the Harris bus of more tax cuts and the same style of leadership are in the fast lane at this point. And for good measure, they've dumped the youth bus that was too raucous. Mr. McGuinty's bus, as we all know, had some mechanical problems early on and it looks as though someone has sullied his roadmap with coffee stains. They're still searching for direction and consistency. As for Mr. Hampton, his poll numbers are not favourable and he needs people to pay more attention to his bus, period!